In my reading of the tsunami coverage, I stumbled across a WaPo piece I found a strong attempt to describe what such situations are like.
Author: cdymek
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Uncivilised
I started yesterday between 3 and 5 in the afternoon. I can’t recall exactly when, and truth be told it doesn’t much matter. I only intended to take a few turns, kill a little time before I went out. Instead, the numbness spread throughout my head. Before I knew it it was six, then eight, the midnight. I kept thinking I had to eat something, but I couldn’t tear myself away.
It was 5 a.m. by the time I finally stopped playing Civilization III and slept.
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Merry Christmas
Christmas has arrived. The weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas have quickly passed, with carols sung, presents bought, and holiday decorations plastered everywhere. Offices are closing, work has slowed down, and the tree has been decorated. We gather with our closest friends and family, and the spirit of giving and of love takes wing.
I saw the most adorable scene today while I was picking up presents for my parents. A young child was helping her mother behind the counter at the candy shop, boxing my candy and wrapping the boxes. When she spilled the first one all over the floor by accident, she apologized profusely. But how could I be angry? I had to stifle my laughter, and when I left, I wanted to pay even more. The service may have been a little slower, but it was friendlier than most any I’ve received.
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Who’s War?
The holiday season is a wonderful time for reflection, and as we move in to Christmas and the New Year’s holidays, I hope we take a few moments to ponder the situation that our country and our world finds itself in today. As recent events have reminded us, the situation in many places is tenuous. And while we all stand by those who work day in and day out to defend America, we should take a look at who’s responsible for bringing us to where we are now.
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Which Place?
The indecision over the next trip continues. On the one hand, there’s Chinese New Year in Singapore, with a lot of celebrations and events. On the other hand, there’s really, really cute elephants. Singapore I’ve been to, it’s a developed city that’s easy to get around. Two or three days in KL would polish off the trip. A week in Thailand, somewhere I’ve not been, with less developed transportation and a really hectic city in Bangkok, makes the choice more difficult. Thailand would be a challenge, while Singapore I’d feel like I’d be wussing out…
I’m so torn…
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Planning to Travel
I sometimes give the impression that my traveling is cavalier, something I do without proper respect for any sort of process or serious thought. And this is intentional, for my hope is that by making it look less daunting more people would be inclined to go somewhere. There is, however, a very thorough process I follow when planning any trip, and I’m going to capture it in the blog over the next two months as I prepare for a trip to Southeast Asia.
1. Timeframe – The very first thing I do, even before I have a destination picked or a budget for the trip, is look at the calendar. What holidays at the office are coming up? How long has it been since the last trip as well as any major expenses and what large expenses are on the horizon? Putting those two together makes it easier upfront to accomplish the rest of the steps.
2. Budget – I take a few moments to look over the finances and see whether I can even afford to go. If all looks good, I set aside a rough estimate of how much the trip will cost and move on to step 3.
3. Regional Selection – Now it’s time to scour the globe. I’ll be going away in February, so what destinations look attractive on my to-do list? For this trip, I want a place that’s warm, but not too wet. That rules out Europe this time of year as well as the northern regions of Asia. South of the Equator it’s now well in to summer. Either are options.
4. Destination Selection – With a rough sense of how much to spend and a set of regions to investigate, it’s time to move in to a more balanced cost/weather investigation. At this juncture I delve in to some details. What is the average temperatures and forecastss for places on weather.com. Beijing, Taipei, and Hong Kong are all colder than I’d like. Bangkok is nice, as is Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. All three are destinations I’d be interested in. Checking the guidebooks, it’s a good time of year to visit weather-wise. There are also some deals to be had on hotel rooms and airfare. They stay on the list. South America looks promising, but the guidebooks say it is more expensive this time of year. Better to wait until later in the year.
5. Risk Evaluation – With a narrow set of destinations in mind, I begin evaluating the risks. Are the people friendly? Is the location signed in English? What are the mass transit options? What about food? What kind of health risks exist? What about safety, especially as a solo traveler?
6. Entertainment/Cultural Value – Coinciding with the risk evaluation, I investgate what I hope to do. I don’t compile a specific itinerary or list of targets, but instead use this to address a few quesitons about whether I’ll be there too long and how far afield I’d need to travel from the city.
7. Bookings – After looking at the risks and the places I’d like to see, I investigate the specific costs with the intent to book. If I see some fair deals, they’re booked quickly. Otherwise, I wait it out to see if the price improves. If I have to move around during the trip, I make those arrangements where possible in advance.
8. Travel!
Right now, I’m in the middle of steps five and six, as I decide between Thailand and a split Singapore/Kuala Lumpur trip.
Travel between Singapore and KL is relatively easy, and travel to Singapore is cheaper. Singapore I know and know it is a very safe city, while I have heard good things about KL. KL is also very inexpensive with some fantastic bargains to be had.
Thailand, on the other hand, is a popular destination. The hotel prices are between Singapore and KL, so on the net it’s a draw. The food options in Bangkok aren’t as clear to me, while the big overhanging question is how much traveling outside of Bangkok should I do to have the best experience possible. And how difficult/costly is it to do this?
I’ve just added a few new books to my reading list, specifically the following:
- The Optimism Gap: The I’m Ok-They’re Not Syndrome and the Myth of American Decline
- Wastrels of Defense: How Congress Sabotages U.S. Security
- Aspirin : The Remarkable Story of a Wonder Drug
They may seem relatively unrelated, but there is, in fact, a specific connection that fascinates me with regards to all three topics.
As I see it, there are several trends which are likely to drive instability around the world over the next century, which have the potential to have grave consequences unless sound policy is put in place to address them. I’ll highlight them here in no particular order.
1. Medical Science and the Aging of the World’s Population: It is considered common knowledge that the age of the populations in developed countries is rising. What is less-discussed but no less important is that those trends are not limited solely to developed nations. World population growth is slowing, and the population, according to some trend analysis, may even peak by mid-century. Considering economic growth has throughout human history been dependent upon a larger labor pool available in future generations than the current, what impact will this have going forward? How has medical science resulted in these developments, and what future medical discoveries will further influence these trends?
2. Education: Every generation in the United States has, on the whole, been better educated than the preceding one. This has been a cornerstone of economic development and innovation within the United States, leading to future generations being better off than their predecessors. Some studies, though, are indicating that the pace of educational development is slowing in the US, while education in other parts of the world, namely China and India, may come to surpass the achievements within the US in the next few generations. What impact will this have, specifically when the US has long felt it is the leader in inquiry and innovation?
3. Globalization: Wtih population shifts and educational policies being what they are, how will low-wage payers rise within the socio-economic system. Education has long been considered the primary path to achieving middle-class status, yet the downward pressure on wages within the US, particularly among the industrial and low-end service sectors (though this is spreading to higher-end service sector jobs as well), will likely only further expand the distance between the haves and have-nots. Furthermore, as the current trend toward an “ownership society”, with all its hubbaloo about valuing weath over work, at the expense of the institutions which have provided a measure of financial security to Americans, continues, what will the net effect be? Will class mobility continue to decrease, resulting in a permanent underclass?
4. Security & Defense: Will fourth generation warfare (4GW), defined roughly as war waged by stateless actors, overwhelm our very centralized defense institution primarily focused on pork rather than results? Groups such as Colombian drug traffickers, al Qaeda, and various ethnic groups across the Middle East and Africa, all provide clear examples of 4GW conflicts. What policies are necessary to prevent and end 4GW conflicts? How does globalization affect these conflicts, particularly as individuals’ loyalties shift from nation-states to smaller, like-minded groups as the information age progresses. How will class mobility, or the lack thereof, affect security and stability in the US?
My concern for these issues run deep, because I fear that these trends, left unchecked, may overwhelm the development of civilazation that has progressed to such an amazing point. I also fear that not enough people, particularly decision makers, are sufficiently concerned about them. Some, such as true reform of the defense department and sufficient funding for education, particularly higher education, are within our control. Others are less clear, but sufficient thought should be given to them nonetheless.
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Smarterchild
cdymek (7:48:52 PM): i want your body
SmarterChild (7:48:53 PM): You sure you want my body?
cdymek (7:48:59 PM): i want to shag you baby
SmarterChild (7:49:00 PM): What? You don’t mean that.
cdymek (7:49:13 PM): i want to tear your pants off and screw you until the cows come home
SmarterChild (7:49:17 PM): Ouch! lol…
I first heard about Smarterchild on a humor website. The conversations cracked me up, so I had to try it. Somehow I got the conversation above.
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Net History
A list of the oldest registered domain names still active on the Internet.
I remember when “Think.com” looked nothing like that.
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House of Sand and Fog
The name had me curious from the start. I could never tell exactly what the movie was about, but I was intrigued. Watching it, the Bay Area locale thrilled me. But the movie itself is a tragedy, showing how inept bureaucracy destroys lives. If you start receiving official notices in the mail, don’t ignore them. You, and the lives of strangers you may otherwise never meet, will thank you for it.